1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	336195	League of Dungeoneers	Current	60	8.84	5.54	3.57
			Estimated	200	8.39	5.79	3.66

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
League of Dungeoneers (LoD) is a detailed Dungeon Crawl and party management game. The game is designed to be a solo/coop game but could be played with a game master as well. The main task of the game is to develop your characters both by gaining experience but also by finding gold, equipment, magic and legendary items that can help you in your quest. The game is set in its own fantasy universe, containing many of the races and monsters that you would expect from a classical fantasy setting. You could either run the campaign supplied with the game or run any of the 18 single quests. All dungeons are procedurally generated, and all monsters and treasures are randomized making the quests different every time you play them. There is however a theme for each quest you embark upon so don’t expect to find a goblin among the undead in a crypt. There are 46 different room and corridor tiles, each with details about furniture and 5 different large seized objective rooms. All rooms have different furniture and a chest is likely to contain gold or magic items, where for instance a bookshelf is more likely to contain magical scrolls. Party morale and sanity are two important factors to monitor in the game. Meeting fearsome monsters and springing deadly traps will take its toll on the mental state of your heroes and too much strain will give your heroes unwanted disorders such as claustrophobia, arachnophobia or stress syndromes. This will make them less effective and maybe even a liability for the rest of the party. To remedy this, you will need to rest in between quests. If you can’t afford to rest due to lack of funds, maybe that stressed out Dwarf will have to stay behind during the next quest, forcing you to solve the task with a skeleton crew. Characters are designed around several stats such as strength and dexterity but also around skills such as Pick lock or Heal. Depending on their profession the heroes will excel in some of these, while being quite useless in other. Through levelling, you will also unlock talents which will boost certain areas of your character and perks which are powerful boosts that can be used a limited number of times. There are more than 80 talents and perks in the game. As your heroes levels up, the monsters they meet will be tougher as well. Combat is an essential part of the game and is designed to promote movement and prevent those bogged down battles of attrition. With several types of attacks available, both for monsters and heroes, combat becomes more flexible and less of a chore. Add to this the decision if you should evoke that special perk that could change the outcome of the battle or save it to the next. Finally, each dungeon has a threat level. This will increase as the Dungeoneers make their way through he dungeon. Making noises such as bashing down a door, or maybe screaming because of your stress syndrome, is a bad idea. This will increase the threat level, which in turn increases the chances of something bad happening. Maybe you will trigger a wandering group of monsters or set of a trap? It can also give the monsters unexpected boosts during combat. I've have received some question and I thought I would make some clarifications: Complexity: Medium+ I would say. There is quite a lot of information defining each character which of course makes things more complex. However, the actual gameplay is pretty straight forward once you get the hang of it. A gaming session can easily be paused by just taking a picture of the setup. What miniatures can I use?: You can use tokens, standees or any other miniatures you have. The tiles are supplied with miniatures about 30mm in mind but can of course be scaled to any scale you want to. How many different kinds of monsters are there?: A little more than 80. Some of these are variants, such as Orc, Orc brute and Orc berserker for instance. There are also several special characters that you will face during the quests not included in this list. Can I use other tiles or a 3D-printed dungeon with this game?: Yes! This is a simple matter of making your own rooms and corridors table. There is even a template for this in the files section. This game does not focus on stream lining, but rather on creating a detailed dungeon crawler experience. It will require more on the behalf of the player than some of the more modern designs, but for me it's the perfect level of detail. -description from designer

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/336195

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to League of Dungeoneers? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to League of Dungeoneers. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to League of Dungeoneers. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	336195	League of Dungeoneers	1.00	5.54	8.84	3.66	60
1	2019	240271	Core Space	0.84	6.20	8.78	2.96	820
2	2014	164153	Star Wars: Imperial Assault	0.83	7.71	7.99	3.30	22,290
3	2019	220341	Secrets of the Lost Station	0.82	5.56	7.46	2.40	101
4	2017	188920	This War of Mine: The Board Game	0.82	7.36	7.80	3.30	10,397
5	2012	104162	Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition)	0.80	7.40	7.66	3.21	23,953
6	2019	169427	Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1	0.80	6.96	8.80	4.02	1,868
7	2017	179803	Arcadia Quest: Inferno	0.80	6.77	7.95	2.39	2,145
8	2018	207243	The City of Kings	0.80	6.64	7.65	3.18	2,295
9	2019	281198	The Elder Scrolls: Call to Arms	0.79	5.56	7.16	3.75	91
10	2019	281946	Aftermath	0.79	6.36	7.77	2.88	1,244
11	2015	176189	Zombicide: Black Plague	0.79	7.29	7.66	2.50	14,109
12	1985	8426	Man to Man	0.79	5.52	6.27	3.00	44
13	1981	2795	Car Wars	0.78	5.96	6.41	3.10	2,189
14	2019	253344	Cthulhu: Death May Die	0.78	7.48	8.14	2.40	6,585
15	1980	3248	Citadel of Blood	0.77	5.61	6.53	2.39	257
16	1975	38886	Boot Hill	0.77	5.54	6.43	2.23	96
17	2018	218421	Street Masters	0.77	6.51	8.13	2.85	1,204
18	2018	231991	Firefly Adventures: Brigands and Browncoats	0.77	5.90	7.07	2.80	708
19	2019	299121	Machina Arcana (Second/Third Edition)	0.76	6.13	8.11	3.60	658
20	2017	159504	Folklore: The Affliction	0.76	6.47	7.78	3.67	1,765
21	2020	322984	Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients (Revised Edition)	0.76	5.60	8.73		73
22	2014	150997	Shadows of Brimstone: Swamps of Death	0.76	6.83	8.04	3.39	2,302
23	2020	322985	Shadows of Brimstone: Swamps of Death (Revised Edition)	0.76	5.61	8.74	4.00	68
24	2014	146791	Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients	0.75	6.98	7.96	3.35	3,629
25	2020	292333	Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition	0.75	5.53	7.11	1.50	35

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to League of Dungeoneers while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	336195	League of Dungeoneers	5.54	1.00	5.54	8.84	3.66	60
1	2014	164153	Star Wars: Imperial Assault	6.43	0.83	7.71	7.99	3.30	22,290
2	2017	188920	This War of Mine: The Board Game	6.00	0.82	7.36	7.80	3.30	10,397
3	2017	174430	Gloomhaven	5.95	0.70	8.49	8.73	3.87	50,014
4	2012	104162	Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition)	5.92	0.80	7.40	7.66	3.21	23,953
5	2016	205637	Arkham Horror: The Card Game	5.86	0.74	7.93	8.16	3.49	34,915
6	2019	253344	Cthulhu: Death May Die	5.83	0.78	7.48	8.14	2.40	6,585
7	2015	176189	Zombicide: Black Plague	5.75	0.79	7.29	7.66	2.50	14,109
8	2020	291457	Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion	5.68	0.69	8.27	8.64	3.60	19,245
9	2016	205059	Mansions of Madness: Second Edition	5.61	0.72	7.77	8.01	2.67	29,837
10	2015	55690	Kingdom Death: Monster	5.57	0.72	7.72	8.58	4.26	8,359
11	2019	169427	Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1	5.55	0.80	6.96	8.80	4.02	1,868
12	2017	192135	Too Many Bones	5.52	0.71	7.81	8.42	3.85	8,441
13	2017	179803	Arcadia Quest: Inferno	5.39	0.80	6.77	7.95	2.39	2,145
14	2018	207243	The City of Kings	5.28	0.80	6.64	7.65	3.18	2,295
15	2014	146791	Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients	5.24	0.75	6.98	7.96	3.35	3,629
16	2014	155068	Arcadia Quest	5.23	0.72	7.26	7.67	2.53	9,744
17	2015	172081	Burgle Bros.	5.22	0.73	7.16	7.50	2.32	9,518
18	2019	240271	Core Space	5.20	0.84	6.20	8.78	2.96	820
19	2014	150997	Shadows of Brimstone: Swamps of Death	5.17	0.76	6.83	8.04	3.39	2,302
20	2020	306735	Under Falling Skies	5.16	0.71	7.30	7.86	2.46	6,083
21	2019	269385	The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth	5.15	0.68	7.54	7.99	2.60	12,158
22	2009	36932	Claustrophobia	5.04	0.71	7.06	7.50	2.48	6,822
23	2019	281946	Aftermath	5.04	0.79	6.36	7.77	2.88	1,244
24	2018	218421	Street Masters	5.02	0.77	6.51	8.13	2.85	1,204
25	2019	285984	Last Bastion	4.96	0.75	6.66	7.58	2.56	2,403

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	336195	League of Dungeoneers	von Braus publishing	Michael Lundstedt	Kevin Richard John Berry	Adventure	Category: Dungeon Crawler	Action Points
					Dominick Critelli	Ancient	Components: Standees	Action/Event
					Mark "Warpaintcobra" Turner	Dice	Contests: Solitaire Print & Play	Cooperative Game
					Obsidian Fantasy Studio	Exploration	Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Dice Rolling
					Paper Mage	Fantasy	Mechanism: Campaign Games	Hexagon Grid
					Refluo	Fighting		Modular Board
					Robert Adrian Hillman	Medieval		Movement Points
					Scott Betts	Miniatures		Paper-and-Pencil
					YorkBerlin	Mythology		Role Playing
						Print & Play		Scenario / Mission / Campaign Game
						Travel		Solo / Solitaire Game
								Square Grid
								Stat Check Resolution

Individual Game Analysis